The First To Go

The guy with the ponytail that you only talk to if you are really stuck. If you work in tech, you know this person. The tech wizard that most people in the group cannot stand because they're a huge jerk. But, they keep their jobs because they know things. Without them, the work would grind to a halt. They're essential due to their deep knowledge of a certain subject. They hoard this knowledge, doling it out in small doses begrudgingly. Secret knowledge that only they have ensures a job for life. I have been in this business for almost 30 years and every complex system I've ever worked on had it's high priests, controlling knowledge and access. Some were amazing people who only wanted to help others. Some were assholes that I would never willingly talk to. But now? Now I would just ask the AI assistant how the code works or to summarize the configuration. Bang, done.

AI may be the end of the "brilliant asshole" era of tech.

Which is fine with me, actually.

There are entire sectors of the tech community that thrive on very obscure knowledge (I'm looking at you, network engineers). Some things we do in tech are just insanely complicated. And, apparently, we like it that way. I have spoken to many customers who completely reject radical improvements to complex software.

Why?

It was because it would end their jobs.

The folks buying these systems, to a great extent, are making money off of the inherent complexity represented by that equipment. For many years, correctly configuring and maintaining a large network was insanely complex. For example, Cisco recognized this and built a very deep set of features designed to allow networking professionals to fine tune and monitor their networks. This strategy worked insanely well, making Cisco the largest networking vendor on earth. For over twenty years, the interests of Cisco customers and of Cisco were tightly aligned. Cisco trained thousands of networking engineers, and CCIE is generally considered the premier certification for the industry. Those who attained this lofty certification were virtually assured of work for life. And thus, they became the anointed ones. They control what features get used, they control entry into their networks. You have to go through this relatively small elite group to get anything done. When I was at Cisco, I met hundreds of these people.

But then, AI happened.

Today, it's very possible to build an AI model that has encyclopedic knowledge of the entire Cisco ecosystem. Hell, you can teach it EVERYTHING about EVERY network ever built. Compared to building a general purpose LLM like Anthropic or Open AI have done, building a custom model for just networking is pretty trivial. As a former Cisco employee, I can assure you that these things are possible even if I won’t discuss details.

At some point, these systems will become the norm. It's just a matter of time. For years, it was impossible to remove what I call "cognitive load" from software. There are just so many complex use cases in enterprise IT that you really had to be an expert to use the product at all. Take a look at enterprise software vendors. How many of them have advanced certification programs? Most of them. Why? It's because their software is complex. That's a bug, not a feature. Any incumbent that requires customers to take classes or pass advanced certification exams is at risk from being undercut by software that is easier to use. The math is inescapable. All that training is insanely expensive for the customer. If they don't have to spend that money, they won't. Enterprise software moves slowly, but over time, the cheaper solution almost always wins out. If you can convince enterprise buyers that your solution is just as good, but costs half as much to operate? Then you will win in market.

My prediction: This will happen. It's just a matter of time. I am no longer a Cisco employee so I don't know anything secret, but at some point, this paradigm will change. Either Cisco will change it or one of their competitors will.

And what about the wizards? The folks that nobody really likes but everyone needs?

They're the first to go. They usually carry high salaries that companies are happy to shed and they have often alienated others in the organization. Nobody will fight to help them keep their jobs.

If you are in a job where your primary value is that you know things other people don't know, I would strongly suggest you re-evaluate your approach. Focus on helping others. Figure out how to help other teams excel. Drive value for the organization. This is not a guarantee that you will keep your job, but it will make it easier to find a new role if you need one.